Anchoring Bias

Anchoring bias occurs when an initial number, claim, or reference point shapes later judgment. Even an arbitrary starting point can pull estimates toward it. Later adjustments are often too small to remove the anchor's influence.

When the first number or idea quietly pulls every later judgment toward it.

What It Means

An anchor becomes the starting point for judgment, and later reasoning tends to remain too close to it.

The effect can influence prices, forecasts, negotiations, and evaluations even when the first reference is weak or irrelevant.

Common Signals

Your estimate stays close to the first number you encountered.
You judge later options mainly by whether they seem better or worse than the anchor.
An opening offer remains mentally dominant after new information appears.
You make only small adjustments despite evidence that calls for a fresh estimate.

How to Respond

Form an independent estimate before viewing suggested numbers or offers.
Use several credible reference points instead of one starting value.
Recalculate from underlying facts and explain why each adjustment is justified.